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A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and caused disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.

That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."

Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate

The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.

Absence of Serious Debate

Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Both writes two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.

Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."

Call for Wider Discussion

Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."